For years, there has been an undercurrent in America to push a “buy American made.” This sentiment can range from cars to computers. It’s a strange sentiment, since most of our products (even from American companies) have components made overseas. Under Trump in 2025, we have a series of tariffs designed to push American companies to shift from oversea manufacturing to American based manufacturing. This, is of course, causing a market panic as investors are selling off to avoid stock market crashes. Rubio says that this is a temporary downturn as American companies readjust to severing ties with overseas manufacturing. Can American companies survive in a post-2025, where we effectively geo-fence manufacturing to our borders?

Global Markets

When I hear people promote “made in America” jargon, they use small businesses as an example. That this will strengthen America somehow, with little impact to mom and pop businesses. What they neglect to discuss is the impact this will have on a global market. Let’s take Dell as an example and wind through this logic and see if Made in America is going to benefit our corporations.

Below is a graph showing the market share of Dell Technologies (taken from: https://www.bullfincher.io/companies/dell-technologies/revenue-by-geography) You might notice that I’m using 2024 as relevant, due to the fact that as of this writing, 2024 is the most recent and full year of data to analyze.

According to Dell Technologies, nearly 50% of their revenue comes from non-US markets.

What happens if Dell (like Apple) succumbs to pressure from the Trump administration, to invest and build entirely in the United States, cutting out non-US manufacturing?

Global Wages

Before we answer that question, we need to understand hourly wages from different countries:

• China: $6.50/hr
• Mexico: $4.82/hr
• Vietnam: $3.00/hr

If Dell makes that decision to invest in American made products, they will have to play by American rules. This means they have to pay an hourly wage set by the minimum wage laws of a given state. At the time of this writing, the average is $7.25 per hour, with states like California paying a high minimum wage, and states like Wyoming paying a very low minimum wage.

If we follow the Apple example (where they are investing 500 B in Texas to manufacture their products), and Texas has a minimum wage of $7.25, just from this vantage point, we can see that moving from non-US to US manufacturing, we will incur a bump labor wages from $1 to $4 an hour.

But that’s not the real story on wages. Texas manufacturing wages are not paid at the minimum. The average hour manufacturing wages in Texas is at $23.24/hour. If we use that as our baseline, then shifting from non-US to US manufacturing in Texas (like Apple is doing) will INCREASE the labor cost anywhere from $17/hr to $20/hr.

Dell’s details on hourly cost per object is scant. The best resource we have is from 2018, claiming at that time it cost Dell $6 worth of labor (likely overseas) to make a single PC. The data is old, and a bit speculative, but we know it’s close to truth considering Dell’s profit and manufacturing choices abroad. Not factoring in the manufacturing hardware costs, just in labor alone, that will shift some $17-$20/hour. That’s a change of 183% – 233% from 2018 to a post 2025 Made in America agenda. Even if we adjust the 2018 $6/hr international labor cost to $7, we are still looking at a 200% bump, and that’s just comparing to China. Other manufacturing locations are even cheaper.

If Dell had a laptop selling for $1000 in 2018, that same laptop being made in America would adjust to $1,830 – $2,330.

Global Economies of Scale

Even though China’s hourly wage is higher than Vietnam and Mexico, it has an advantage with Economies of Scale. Economies of Scale refers to the concept that the higher the production, the lower cost per unit.

Since China has an established large production system, the economies of scale lower the cost per each unit produced.

Global Supply Chains

Unlike the United States, China is geared towards manufacturing at large scale. Something the U.S. will never be able to replicate as China’s greatest resource is people. They hold 17% of the world’s population. This has established their market capabilities with human capital.

Beyond workers, China has established supply chains with their manufacturing systems. For someone just starting out there is a much higher investment to make this happen. Apple is anticipating a 500 Billion dollar investment to achieve this entirely within the U.S. How long will it take for Apple to recoup that cost? What of Dell? What of every other company that has to shift from overseas manufacturing?

Global Market Impact

If 50% of Dell’s market is the world, and their costs will go up at least 200% (just in wages alone) to manufacture in America, then why would the Global Market keep buying Dell? Japan, and other countries do not have to bypass China. Japan’s Sony or Toshiba could still manufacture a comparable laptop for $1000. Getting that laptop into the United States will be expensive and they’ll hurt in that way, but they will gain the markets Dell and other U.S. companies lose.

In other words, the global market will refuse to pay the Made in America surcharge. Who would pay for a Dell laptop that was $1,000 in 2024, and now $2,333 in 2025, when the comparable Sony, Toshiba, etc, will charge closer to that $1,000 mark?

As Dell’s market is 50% based on non-US revenue, that indicates they will likely lose close to 50% of their market share. Companies like Dell will become closer to mom and pop corporations in the U.S. (only selling within the U.S.), and give up their global dominance.

TL’DR

Global corporations are going to lose big time. I predict that a U.S. company that sells product globally will lose nearly their entire global sales. They will shift down from a global entity to a US only corporation. We as Americans will pay a higher cost for these items, upwards of 200%. Our spending will shrink, as our wages remain consistent, but costs continue to rise. This, along with everything else, will shift the power of American businesses to smaller and smaller footprints.